Breaking down the NFL’s division round

Random thoughts on this weekend’s playoff games:

Saints at 49ers: At home the New Orleans Saints are virtually untouchable. On the road they’re still very good, but mortal.

Based on momentum alone, the Saints should be the pick in this game. Their offense is playing at an elite level and while they tend not to score on the road with the same frequency as at home, they still put plenty of points on the board.

What the 49ers also bring to the table is an efficient offense, one that likes to run to set up the pass; one that likes to methodically march down the field. If Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter are effective against the sometimes porous Saints defense and Alex Smith plays mistake-free football, the 49ers can theoretically keep the ball out of Drew Brees‘ hands and keep the game close.

Brees and his various receiver options continue to pile up the yards and touchdowns, and the running-back trio of Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are playing their best ball of the year at just the right time.

The tempo of this contest will determine the outcome. If New Orleans is at all out of rhythm offensively in the second half, the 49ers will have a chance. If, however, the Saints are anywhere near as fluid as they’ve been for most of the season, they will advance because the 49ers will be unable to keep pace. FINAL SCORE: Saints 27, 49ers 20.

Broncos at Patriots: New England put up 41 points on Denver earlier in the season, despite two Tim Tebow rushing TDs.

The lopsided 18-point victory doesn’t indicate the Broncos were competitive in this game until they tripped over their own laces by coughing up the ball three times in the second quarter. Even they couldn’t Tebow themselves back after that.

Conversely, Tom Brady was on his game, completing 23 of 34 passes for 320 yards, two TDs and no picks. That can’t happen again this week or else the Broncos will find themselves in too deep of a hole.

Credit Denver’s defense for the way they manhandled the Steelers’ offensive line in last week’s wild-card playoff, but Ben Roethlisberger‘s inability to move around in the pocket clearly put Pittsburgh behind the eight ball. The Broncos won’t have that advantage this weekend.

Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy put together a masterful game plan, allowing Tebow to keep the Steelers off-balance by mixing up the running game between his quarterback and halfback Willis McGahee and as a result, setting up big plays via the pass. Expect Denver to try more of the same against New England’s defense.

For Denver to keep its improbable season alive it must stop Brady. Sacks, hurries, interceptions—without them the Broncos will be unable to keep the Pats from lighting it up and delivering a knockout punch. FINAL SCORE: Patriots 42, Broncos 23.

Texans at Ravens: Just as the Saints are dominant at home, so are the Ravens. The problem for them is they’ve not had many chances to host playoff games at M&T Bank Stadium and have exited the playoffs earlier than expected. This year will be different.

With the defense healthy and the offense spearheaded by the explosive Ray Rice, the Ravens have their best chance to make it to the Super Bowl since their triumph over the Giants in 2001.

Houston’s defense continues to sparkle even without Mario Williams, but it will have to control the line of scrimmage, stop Rice cold and force Joe Flacco to beat them through the air if they are to have any chance in this one. That’s a lot to ask.

Meanwhile, Baltimore figures to let loose on rookie QB T. J. Yates, meaning Arian Foster and the Houston offensive line must dominate as they did a week ago against the Bengals to keep the Ravens at bay. Again, a lot to ask. FINAL SCORE: Ravens 23, Texans 10.

Giants at Packers: Shootout at the frozen tundra.

In early December the Packers and Giants played an epic game at the Meadowlands, with Green Bay pulling it out in the final seconds 38-35. The Packers had been given a scare but survived; the Giants had lost their fourth in a row and looked as good as dead.

Fast-forward six weeks and its the Giants who are gelling thanks to a revitalized pass rush and an offense with Eli Manning firmly in command and receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks routinely making big plays. But will it be enough against Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s offensive juggernaut?

Rodgers’ 45-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is staggering. These are the kind of numbers that make MVPs and put you firmly on the road to Canton. The guy just doesn’t make mistakes and as the Giants learned the hard way, he can drive his team down the field virtually at will if not contained.

All week long the Giants have been studying game film of the Packers’ only blemish of the year, a late-season road loss to the Chiefs. In that game, Kansas City did a lot of things right, including maximizing protections for its quarterback and pressuring Rodgers and his receivers. But most important, the Chiefs controlled the time of possession and kept Green Bay’s offense off the field for a good chunk of the time.

The Giants will try to emulate Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel‘s battle plan while looking to have Manning exploit Green Bay’s vulnerable defense. New York also knows it can win at Lambeau Field—the Giants did just that in 2007 en route to their Super Bowl victory over the Patriots. This is our upset pick of the week. FINAL SCORE: New York 35, Green Bay 31.